FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Crashing the party: Daniil Medvedev upsets Carlos Alcaraz to reach US Open final

NEW YORK — The FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Centerinevitable US Open final wasn't so inevitable after all. 

Daniil Medvedev, the 2021 champion, played one of the best matches of his career and took out No. 1 seed Carlos Alcaraz 7-6 (7-3), 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 to set up a final with Novak Djokovic. 

Though Medvedev had comfortably been the third-best player in the world this year with five ATP titles, he came into this US Open without much fanfare. On the heels of their five-set Wimbledon final and another epic in Cincinnati last month, it almost seemed fated that Djokovic and Alcaraz would renew their generational battle one more time in New York. 

But Medvedev, who came into the US Open struggling a bit with his game and particularly his serve, had other ideas. 

Despite two decisive losses to Alcaraz this year — including a straight sets romp in the Wimbledon semifinals — Medvedev was able to turn the tables with a first serve that unlocked enough easy points and a level of precision in long rallies that stressed Alcaraz in unique ways. 

Medvedev finished the match winning 82% of points in which he made a first serve and a healthy enough 38% of points on return. Sunday will be his third US Open final and fifth Grand Slam final overall, all of which have been contested against either Djokovic or Rafael Nadal. 

Medvedev took home his only major title here two years ago in straight sets, preventing Djokovic from winning the calendar Grand Slam. This will be their 15th meeting, with Djokovic holding a 9-5 edge. 

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Friday’s result was particularly surprising because of how much trouble Medvedev seemed to have in this specific matchup, with his preferred style of playing defense deep behind the baseline vulnerable to the drop shots and net rushes that Alcaraz specializes in. 

And Alcaraz did have some success in those areas Friday. But Medvedev, who said before the match his tennis would have to be "11 out of 10” to beat Alcaraz, comfortably cleared that bar in pretty much every department. 

That’s what Medvedev can do on a hard court — and particularly at this tournament, where the Russian has felt at home with the court conditions since his first run to the final in 2019. 

Alcaraz, who won the US Open last year, started to finally find his groove in the third set after getting thoroughly outplayed in the first two. At 2-1, he finally earned his first break point since the opening game of the match and made a canny play, drawing Medvedev into the forecourt and then tossing a lob over his head to give him a foothold in the match. 

Medvedev again felt the Alcaraz pressure at 1-1 in the fourth, needing to save three break points to fend off another push. But much like in the first set, Medvedev kept firing away, finding enough crazy angles and lines to get control. 

The decisive game came at 3-2 in the fourth set. With Alcaraz serving and seemingly on his way to a routine hold at 40-15, Medvedev managed to reel him back him in to deuce. After 20 points, Medvedev smoked a low, dipping backhand that a net-rushing Alcaraz couldn't handle to earn a break.

Medvedev, trying to serve out the match at 5-3, immediately fell behind 15-40 while the crowd tried to exhort one more rally out of the Spaniard. But Medvedev erased both break points and then one more, leaving Alcaraz 1-for-9 in that department. On his fourth match point amidst various cheers and jeers, Medvedev finally got an overhead smash that he put away to send him back to the final.